Risk Ranking by the British Public: A Survey of Worry About a Broad Spectrum of Risk Issues

Much attention has focused on people's concerns about technological and environmental risks, but it is important to acknowledge that these are not the only risks that individuals have to face. In this article we present the results of a national survey ranking levels of worry across a broader spectrum of risk issues, including ‘lifestyle’, social welfare, financial and personal safety risks. A total of 1742 interviews were conducted, at home, among a nationally representative quota sample of adults age 15+ in Great Britain. Field work took place between January 24 to 27, 1997. Respondents' spontaneous mentions of worry centered on issues to do with health, education, and money. When prompted, respondents expressed most concern about a number of social issues, while certain ‘lifestyle’ factors identified as significant risks to health were accorded only low levels of worry. The survey demonstrates that risk issues that engage some expert attention do not always have the same immediacy for the general public. Thus, while technological and environmental risks certainly deserve attention, they should not overshadow consideration of other risks that have equal if not greater implications for people's lives.     

肝功能检验建议性报告软件临床分析管理的优势

介绍一种方便于临床分析、鉴别诊断和分析管理的临床检验专家系统。利用人工神经网络（Artificial Neural. Networks,ANN）挖掘患者基本信息和实验室数据,进行综合统计分析,对已确诊的患者（肝炎、肝癌、肝硬化和胆囊结石）的生化检验项目进行梳理,得出相应疾病生化指标的临床阳性预测值,然后以各项生化指标为多因素变量、诊断为输出变量建立ANN预测模型。另外抽取肝功异常并已明确诊断的患者60例进行生化指标测定,利用ANN系统,综合分析预测临床符合率,同时构建对初诊病人的树状筛查程序和直观判读报告软件的开发。利用专家诊断系统对肝脏疾病预测的准确率分别为：肝炎80.0%、肝硬化86.7%、肝癌66.7%和胆囊结石73.3%,优化后的报告格式直观反映患者的病情变化。借助于建议性报告软件可快速简易地作出对肝胆系统疾病鉴别诊断,达到医疗资源优化利用的目的。     

食源性致病菌风险排名方法

综述食品风险排名的相关概念及其在风险评估中的重要性,探讨发达国家进行风险分析的方法与经验,其中致病菌风险排名的研究因病原菌的动态性和宿主特异性而呈现出独特的挑战性。重点详细探讨美国对食源性致病菌排名的创新方法——专家组启发法,此法作为弥补数据不足和不确定性的手段,结合传统的＂自上而下＂和＂自下而上＂方法,可以为风险管理者提供了更全面更有效的食源性致病菌风险排名。     

Validating indicators of sheep welfare through a consensus of expert opinion

A consensus of expert opinion was used to provide both face and consensual validity to a list of potential indicators of sheep welfare. This approach was used as a first step in the identification of valid welfare indicators for sheep. The consensus methodology of the National Institute of Health, using pre-meeting consultation and focus group discussions, was used to ascertain the consensus opinion of a panel of sheep welfare experts. The Farm Animal Welfare Council's five freedoms were used as a framework to organise a list of current on-farm welfare issues for sheep. The five freedoms were also the welfare criterion used to identify potential on-farm welfare indicators for sheep. As a result, experts identified 193 welfare issues for sheep and lambs managed on farms across England and Wales. Subsequently, a combination of animal- (n = 26), resource- (n = 13) and management- (n = 22) based indicators was suggested for (i) adult rams, (ii) adult ewes (male and female sheep, over 1 year old), (iii) growing lambs (male and female sheep, over 6 weeks to 1 year old) and (iv) young lambs (male and female lambs, 6 weeks old and under). The results from this study could therefore be used to inform the further development of valid methods of assessing the on-farm welfare of sheep.     

Intragenesis and cisgenesis as alternatives to transgenic crop development

One of the major concerns of the general public about transgenic crops relates to the mixing of genetic materials between species that cannot hybridize by natural means. To meet this concern, the two transformation concepts cisgenesis and intragenesis were developed as alternatives to transgenesis. Both concepts imply that plants must only be transformed with genetic material derived from the species itself or from closely related species capable of sexual hybridization. Furthermore, foreign sequences such as selection genes and vector‐backbone sequences should be absent. Intragenesis differs from cisgenesis by allowing use of new gene combinations created by in vitro rearrangements of functional genetic elements. Several surveys show higher public acceptance of intragenic/cisgenic crops compared to transgenic crops. Thus, although the intragenic and cisgenic concepts were introduced internationally only 9 and 7 years ago, several different traits in a variety of crops have currently been modified according to these concepts. Five of these crops are now in field trials and two have pending applications for deregulation. Currently, intragenic/cisgenic plants are regulated as transgenic plants worldwide. However, as the gene pool exploited by intragenesis and cisgenesis are identical to the gene pool available for conventional breeding, less comprehensive regulatory measures are expected. The regulation of intragenic/cisgenic crops is presently under evaluation in the EU and in the US regulators are considering if a subgroup of these crops should be exempted from regulation. It is accordingly possible that the intragenic/cisgenic route will be of major significance for future plant breeding.     

What is an expert? A systems perspective on expertise

Expert knowledge is a valuable source of information with a wide range of research applications. Despite the recent advances in defining expert knowledge, little attention has been given to how to view expertise as a system of interacting contributory factors for quantifying an individual's expertise. We present a systems approach to expertise that accounts for many contributing factors and their inter‐relationships and allows quantification of an individual's expertise. A Bayesian network (BN) was chosen for this purpose. For illustration, we focused on taxonomic expertise. The model structure was developed in consultation with taxonomists. The relative importance of the factors within the network was determined by a second set of taxonomists (supra‐experts) who also provided validation of the model structure. Model performance was assessed by applying the model to hypothetical career states of taxonomists designed to incorporate known differences in career states for model testing. The resulting BN model consisted of 18 primary nodes feeding through one to three higher‐order nodes before converging on the target node (Taxonomic Expert). There was strong consistency among node weights provided by the supra‐experts for some nodes, but not others. The higher‐order nodes, “Quality of work” and “Total productivity”, had the greatest weights. Sensitivity analysis indicated that although some factors had stronger influence in the outer nodes of the network, there was relatively equal influence of the factors leading directly into the target node. Despite the differences in the node weights provided by our supra‐experts, there was good agreement among assessments of our hypothetical experts that accurately reflected differences we had specified. This systems approach provides a way of assessing the overall level of expertise of individuals, accounting for multiple contributory factors, and their interactions. Our approach is adaptable to other situations where it is desirable to understand components of expertise.     

浅析转基因舆情

随着现代科学技术的进步与发展,转基因技术不断推广和应用,其安全性也由此备受关注。转基因舆情的发展态势体现了公众对转基因技术的接受和认知水平,因此,营造良好的舆情环境是转基因技术健康、有效发展的重要保障。通过解析国际典型转基因舆情事例、分析国际转基因舆情发展情况,指出公众对于转基因技术的认知和接受程度不断提高,国际转基因舆情呈良性发展趋势。同时,目前我国转基因舆情呈现辐射层面广、以网络阵地为主、双方主打安全旗帜、强调技术不确定性等主要特点。为保障我国转基因技术的健康可持续发展、稳步推进转基因作物产业化,通过借鉴国外舆情应对经验,对营造我国转基因舆情良性环境提出几点对策：（1）建立完善的信息公开平台;（2）加强多元化科普宣传方式;（3）加强转基因生物安全监管;（4）建立转基因舆情监测平台。     

集束化管理模式在急诊危重患者院内转运的应用及效果评价

目的探讨集束化管理模式在急诊危重患者院内转运中的应用效果。方法选取2019年9月~2020年4月我院急诊科就诊的324例急诊危重患者为研究对象,按转运方式不同分为观察组和对照组各162例。观察组采用集束化管理模式转运危重患者,对照组采用传统模式转运危重患者,比较两组患者的院内转运时间、投诉率、转运意外发生率(包括病情变化、脱管、仪器故障等)及满意度(包括转运患者的满意度及接收科室医护人员的满意度)情况。结果观察组院内危重患者转运时间明显短于对照组(P<0.05),转运患者的投诉率、及转运意外发生率均低于对照组(均P<0.05);观察组转运患者的满意度、接收科室医护人员的满意度均明显高于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。结论集束化管理模式在急诊危重患者院内转运中可缩短患者转运时间,降低不良事件发生率,提高了患者及接收科室医护人员的满意度。